MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b81fe926331bcd6953f854559113d14933cdf22ce60f4cd6cdaddc1e550ffc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 2,886$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.82 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 23c | 2,386$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 2,165$1,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 1,321$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.92 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 51c | 999.96$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.98 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 980.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 820.08$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.04 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 506.74$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 398.85$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 396.25$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 233.73$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 160.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 51c | 145.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 53c | 144.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 115.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 109.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 87.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 53c | 65.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 53c | 65.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 53c | 65.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Over | 34c | 54.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 52.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 52.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Under | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 71c | 36.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 48c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 67c | 24.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 63c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.