Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3001ee6f4281b30c95dde15fc372bad05e74be0758c3e56fa980ffd0bb09a6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Marinoof Azerbaijan, San Marino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Marino | 79c | 2,703$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.35 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Azerbaijan | 11c | 1,877$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed San Marino | 73c | 782.95$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Azerbaijan | 30c | 768.64$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.59 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Azerbaijan | 38c | 625.73$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Azerbaijan | 39c | 509.73$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.64 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed San Marino | 61c | 485$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.8 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Azerbaijan | 27c | 385.01$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed San Marino | 61c | 300.16$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Azerbaijan | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Azerbaijan | 36c | 299.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 333 | 50.5%168 W · 165 L | +24.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed San Marino | 62c | 290.91$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…bfa2backed Azerbaijan | 39c | 281.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Azerbaijan | 31c | 160.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Azerbaijan | 17c | 149.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Azerbaijan | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Azerbaijan | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked San Marino | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1184backed Azerbaijan | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Azerbaijan | 34c | 98.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…740cbacked San Marino | 60c | 83.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…86debacked Azerbaijan | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed San Marino | 59c | 49.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked San Marino | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…c2bebacked San Marino | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…8ac3backed San Marino | 59c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed San Marino | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Azerbaijan | 39c | 26.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed San Marino | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked San Marino | 64c | 17.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked San Marino | 60c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 365 | 58.4%213 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5)this page
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 0.5Over won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5Over won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5)San Marino won
- Spread: San Marino (-1.5)Azerbaijan won
- Spread: San Marino (-2.5)Azerbaijan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.