Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel – Cazaux vs. Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3026d99d12bf408fbdee6774d1db2b17e356cce22b3ec7c7742be42764befd19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Cazaux, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rinderknech | 39c | 13,051$5,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,072.59 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Cazaux | 60c | 8,474$5,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.58 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Rinderknech | 41c | 3,022$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.28 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Cazaux | 52c | 2,295$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Cazaux | 62c | 2,071$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Cazaux | 60c | 1,945$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.06 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Rinderknech | 45c | 1,780$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rinderknech | 39c | 1,195$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.06 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Cazaux | 62c | 1,064$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.02 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cazaux | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rinderknech | 40c | 988.62$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.77 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Rinderknech | 42c | 829.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Rinderknech | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked Cazaux | 61c | 408.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cazaux | 58c | 336.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rinderknech | 47c | 290.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Rinderknech | 43c | 232.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rinderknech | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Cazaux | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Cazaux | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Rinderknech | 39c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Rinderknech | 39c | 198$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cazaux | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cazaux | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…4eebbacked Rinderknech | 47c | 127.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Rinderknech | 46c | 125.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Rinderknech | 43c | 120.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Cazaux | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech | 37c | 96.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Rinderknech | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cazaux | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Cazaux | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Rinderknech | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Rinderknech | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rinderknech | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Cazaux | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rinderknech | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Cazaux | 60c | 31.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Cazaux | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…8a16backed Cazaux | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rinderknech | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Cazaux | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.