Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304b1c620b1d36adeec531561cdf2088051de14fef258a4fdb377d3e4b16b402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 514.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 352.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.71 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 321.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 257.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 48c | 249.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 204.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 195.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 57c | 193.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 49c | 156.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 126.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 43c | 116.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 110.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 38c | 90.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 77.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 76.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 42c | 66.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 50c | 61.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 60.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 57.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 35c | 56.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 53.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 41.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 38.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed Yes | 58c | 38.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 37.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 33.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 40c | 29.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…735cbacked Yes | 50c | 28.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 45c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 44c | 26.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 64c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b77…80b3backed Yes | 46c | 23.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 59c | 20.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 59c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 79c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.