Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8827b4e0fdbc5fffdaca02d37ee45deeef7d180f499fd591641472bd29dff0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 9,180$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730.4 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 38c | 8,288$3,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,171.97 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 652$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.76 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 482.94$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.55 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 77c | 441.18$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 379.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 350.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbe…84d1backed No | 70c | 289.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0208…9484backed Yes | 34c | 282.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 253$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.17 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 215.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.84 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 200.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 177.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 169.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 148.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 56c | 146.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 140.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 29c | 135.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 21c | 135.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…8785backed Yes | 18c | 133.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 132.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 20c | 121.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 115.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 23c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 26c | 103.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 24c | 82.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 81.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 24c | 81.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 78.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…3268backed Yes | 20c | 71.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 62c | 64.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 33c | 61.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 59.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 53.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 53.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 24c | 46.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 30c | 44.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 27c | 43.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 390 | 70.5%275 W · 115 L | +65.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 60c | 37.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 36.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 80c | 35.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 66c | 35.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…c550backed No | 77c | 31.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 79c | 31.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 235 | 46.4%109 W · 126 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 27.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 63c | 26.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 20.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 17.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 15.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.