MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307125ee2e5b98226eb347b8249af0fcdf78602f954159a8989f39f799b42db8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 2,174$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 1,331$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.32 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,200$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 1c | 1,010$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 916.39$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.85 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 717.53$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 405.26$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 335$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 330$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 314.96$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 254.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.54 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 226.73$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 170.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 169$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 168.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 150.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 137.68$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 130.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 104.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cincinnati Reds | 13c | 95.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 91.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 71.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 65.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 30.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 28.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 27.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Cincinnati Reds | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 266 | 18.4%49 W · 217 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 17.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.