TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona Diamondbacksof Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,089 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks71c3,225$2,303 inWon+$922.211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds34c2,207$757 inLost-$757.0312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds12c811.92$97 inLost-$97.4397050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks66c580.67$380 inWon+$200.248,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds12c405.92$49 inLost-$48.711,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Cincinnati Reds33c303$100 inLost-$99.9920848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds17c254.35$43 inLost-$43.243,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds42c250$105 inLost-$1059,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks67c156$105 inWon+$51.485,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Cincinnati Reds30c102.84$31 inLost-$31.142,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Cincinnati Reds28c89.93$25 inLost-$24.951,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds17c75$13 inLost-$12.7544745.6%204 W · 243 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds34c64.73$22 inLost-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cincinnati Reds34c58.82$20 inLost-$2079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks64c43.48$28 inWon+$15.463,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c32.64$22 inWon+$10.7736250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks67c32.64$22 inWon+$10.7729354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks57c27.32$16 inWon+$11.756,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Arizona Diamondbacks65c16.1$10 inWon+$5.631,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c15$10 inWon+$4.951,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Arizona Diamondbacks68c15$10 inWon+$4.812654%68 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks79c13.22$10 inWon+$2.84,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.