MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1859c443004315a2bfe36af82bb493caea0e904a4693b3a48446299ec7c15ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 4,205$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 3,946$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,111.11 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 39c | 2,193$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.12 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 2,142$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.24 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,844$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.56 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 1,582$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.32 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,215$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.43 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 39c | 961$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.79 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 647.39$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.01 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 605$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.23 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 543$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 58c | 466.57$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 286.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 276.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 55c | 211.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 175.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 138.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 53c | 128.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 63c | 117.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 105.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 39c | 94.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 37c | 90.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Under | 38c | 85.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 77c | 76.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 53c | 56.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 53c | 49.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 59c | 41.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 55c | 35.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 33.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 71c | 32.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 40c | 29.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Under | 39c | 29.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 43c | 26.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 61c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.