MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fbe24a4de3e193f079d717294be4fee871c2377c805744986860ac636949617
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 9,681$5,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,275.01 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 6,154$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.81 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 2,780$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.96 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 983.65$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.26 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 951.94$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.77 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 797.98$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 53c | 658.49$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 53c | 645$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.22 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 514.88$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.54 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 455.39$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 295$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 218.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 64c | 211.94$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 194.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 192.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 159.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 136.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 70c | 115.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 109.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 97.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 43c | 62.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 40c | 62.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 39c | 60.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 30c | 60.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 42c | 54.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Under | 48c | 51.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 32.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 58c | 23.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 19.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.