Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30770cc6d6d22d58ebb64e86da475a6245d36838ab7908c6f9b00a29b61d10b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 0c | 3,084$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 1,995$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,716$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…629cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,372$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 809.95$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 9c | 805.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 644.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 34c | 599.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 7c | 483.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 5c | 337.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 56c | 337$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 42c | 264.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 25c | 256.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 23c | 239.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 49c | 232.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 65c | 231.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…62ebbacked Yes | 66c | 214.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 7c | 200.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed Yes | 69c | 161.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 160.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 10c | 122.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 121.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 39c | 118.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…bc13backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…cd99backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +350.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 50c | 99.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 47c | 96.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 94.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 53c | 77.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 60c | 73.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 71.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 63c | 65.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…89fbbacked Yes | 53c | 65.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98c…3c50backed Yes | 55c | 64.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 24c | 62.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 58c | 59.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 53.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…f779backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 47c | 48.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 29c | 44.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…bcb8backed No | 36c | 38.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 53c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 46c | 37.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 47c | 35.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…9337backed No | 55c | 31.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 68c | 31.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 61c | 28.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…ad88backed Yes | 68c | 27.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…1614backed No | 55c | 25.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 49c | 25.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…8994backed Yes | 70c | 23.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b2…2dcabacked Yes | 65c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…a61abacked Yes | 65c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.