MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a5120f320fe29bbc3a642b01267ef3f8887c7fa217b021122af83e4d390643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 17c | 3,291$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.2 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 2,393$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 1,670$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,493$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 1,059$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 46c | 774.93$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.46 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 73c | 723.52$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 649.45$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 53c | 448.5$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.11 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 390$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 37c | 349$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 297.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 75c | 191.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 18c | 163$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 155.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 148.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 35c | 122.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 56c | 118.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 111.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Over | 18c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 61c | 94.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 82.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 14c | 82.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 63c | 80.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 54c | 77.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 39c | 65.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 35c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 56c | 61.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under | 64c | 44.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 73c | 42.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 46c | 40.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 31.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 26.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 73c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…74eebacked Under | 65c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.