TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$347,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16bb…8492backed Washington Nationals44c35,000$15,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,40088349.3%435 W · 448 L-4.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals61c23,708$14,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,462.0411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed New York Mets56c22,764$12,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,015.964949%24 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Washington Nationals64c22,575$14,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,545.918450%42 W · 42 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets36c16,386$5,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,447.473,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Mets56c15,000$8,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.9577153.8%415 W · 356 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets41c14,000$5,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2601,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets51c11,070$5,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,394.812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Mets57c7,500$4,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,22550152.5%263 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets65c6,962$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.5910,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets36c6,626$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.788,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals61c5,705$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,502.254,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets73c4,434$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.968,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals43c4,146$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.773,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets40c3,712$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,227.424,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c12…4b54backed Washington Nationals3c3,646$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed New York Mets20c2,993$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,394.732454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Washington Nationals69c2,883$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00098349.8%490 W · 493 L-18.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed New York Mets29c2,446$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.377331.5%23 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed New York Mets56c2,433$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.3918648.9%91 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked New York Mets29c2,286$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.0619343.5%84 W · 109 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Washington Nationals44c2,255$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.3175248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed New York Mets57c2,195$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.8490053.6%482 W · 418 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals29c2,139$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.238,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Mets47c2,112$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.3697044.9%436 W · 534 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Washington Nationals69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38012264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Washington Nationals43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86031847.5%151 W · 167 L-1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Washington Nationals72c1,703$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.2110241.2%42 W · 60 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed New York Mets16c1,617$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.9117014.1%24 W · 146 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed New York Mets59c1,616$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.7313458.2%78 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Washington Nationals44c1,591$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70016146.6%75 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Washington Nationals44c1,517$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.4871253.4%380 W · 332 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed New York Mets56c1,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.9862447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Washington Nationals69c1,270$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.435658.1%207 W · 149 L+26.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets56c1,190$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.676,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Washington Nationals43c1,190$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.71,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Mets68c1,154$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.6121650.5%109 W · 107 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Mets45c1,140$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.8137941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed New York Mets41c1,096$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.0550856.9%289 W · 219 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Washington Nationals59c1,068$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.3427446.7%128 W · 146 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets37c1,040$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.569,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed New York Mets50c993.76$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.7666250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb25…62edbacked Washington Nationals27c975.83$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.034318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de2…11a9backed New York Mets51c971.9$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.91643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Mets44c775.54$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.811,52059.1%899 W · 621 L+78.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74dd…df82backed New York Mets29c729$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.2612733.9%43 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6c…a2c3backed Washington Nationals44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Washington Nationals4c653.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.16513.9%2 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets40c633.21$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.254,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets38c584.33$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.281,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Washington Nationals75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37558160.4%351 W · 230 L+30.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed New York Mets30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Washington Nationals25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510636.8%39 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Washington Nationals44c499.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9920836.5%76 W · 132 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed New York Mets51c471.5$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2836253.3%193 W · 169 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Washington Nationals68c443.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008952.8%47 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Washington Nationals43c436.04$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.516845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed New York Mets45c416.86$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8849160.7%298 W · 193 L+41.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Washington Nationals39c415.61$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2492645.9%425 W · 501 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Washington Nationals30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029153.6%156 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Washington Nationals21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8436729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets52c388.05$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.575,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Washington Nationals44c384.09$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16916353.4%87 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Mets40c371.57$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.461,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Washington Nationals44c365$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.628452.5%149 W · 135 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea53…e1ebbacked Washington Nationals44c363.64$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed New York Mets80c362$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41,10679.6%880 W · 226 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Washington Nationals44c345.54$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0459243.2%256 W · 336 L-2.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets55c337.45$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.242,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed New York Mets72c313.12$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.481,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed New York Mets54c310$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1495555.2%527 W · 428 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Washington Nationals31c309.8$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0786948.4%421 W · 448 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets40c306.71$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.611,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked New York Mets68c294$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0835668.8%245 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals26c278.69$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.183,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Washington Nationals23c271.81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.521233.5%71 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked New York Mets56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8613666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked New York Mets79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1632266.5%214 W · 108 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals44c250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11051646.9%242 W · 274 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked New York Mets79c229.05$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.221449.5%106 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Washington Nationals44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015143%65 W · 86 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Washington Nationals44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017752.5%93 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Washington Nationals54c225.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5952752.2%275 W · 252 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72fa…e334backed New York Mets72c223.6$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.613636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Washington Nationals44c222.22$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7848446.7%226 W · 258 L-33.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Washington Nationals51c218.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11112544%55 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2561…ce3ebacked Washington Nationals23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025249.6%125 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Washington Nationals44c217.39$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.654042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Washington Nationals26c210$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.679049.2%389 W · 401 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Washington Nationals43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8625147%118 W · 133 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Washington Nationals19c199.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed New York Mets30c196.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.451266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+48.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Mets41c188.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3443757%249 W · 188 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed New York Mets41c188.31$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6458358.5%341 W · 242 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Washington Nationals32c187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5614943.6%65 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Washington Nationals42c180.93$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8534658.1%201 W · 145 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a21…4aa9backed New York Mets56c179.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7915252%79 W · 73 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets29c172$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.855,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Washington Nationals69c170.65$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.753357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.