TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$310,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$310,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Over45c280,023$127,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,812.843647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under56c120,000$67,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,199.991,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under55c59,991$32,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,772.4911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,00086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under51c33,731$17,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,266.1610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under56c4,991$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.832,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c4,800$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6881,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under30c4,495$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.778,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over61c2,467$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.1712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under53c1,939$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.424,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under52c1,703$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.536048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd2…14c2backed Over49c1,617$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.996246.8%29 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over47c1,397$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.413,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…c9a7backed Under62c1,392$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.254641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over48c1,315$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.222,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over39c1,116$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.5129950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under52c888$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7686653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under54c793.2$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.336264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over50c725.11$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.178,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under50c654$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.388,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under41c599.98$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.491,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c540$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.46,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over44c513.8$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.731,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26023758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25559549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Over68c434$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.882065%13 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over50c406.31$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.442,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7734…017dbacked Under52c400.08$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.044940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20032166.4%213 W · 108 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under50c346.65$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9547852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under54c312.01$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.667248.6%35 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c38…1bfabacked Under43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003070%21 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over45c202.5$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.881,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10030340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over62c178.26$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3531957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over47c177$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8145045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Under56c172.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.558856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under52c168.94$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.851,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under41c166.6$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.935,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over46c155.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1756851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6047446.6%221 W · 253 L+26.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Under37c138.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.053050%15 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over45c138$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.954642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Under35c131.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x186b…9bbabacked Under75c130$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.53444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under55c123.13$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.861,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over46c119.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.092,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1d…a01abacked Under56c116.07$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under56c106$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.362,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5678854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5654146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Under52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011441.2%47 W · 67 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Over60c91.49$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7926857.1%153 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…eebbbacked Under56c90.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.452937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over61c69.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2747056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over61c64.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3173355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over46c64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5612752%66 W · 61 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Under52c63.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336342.9%27 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x301f…e84cbacked Under56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303174.2%23 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over52c49.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Under52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255054%27 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under56c46.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1919555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over48c41.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.522,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036050.3%181 W · 179 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under55c38.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.914,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over62c36.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7315052.7%79 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…2f20backed Under56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x641d…eeedbacked Under52c34.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.125851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Over39c33.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6718244.5%81 W · 101 L-14.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Under51c32.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4747652.9%252 W · 224 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over51c29.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.352,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3459…caa6backed Over68c26.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.479349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over54c26.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0887370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under55c24.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4434846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Over61c23.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.177266.7%48 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ce9…7115backed Under68c21.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5713260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Over49c20.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6712946.5%60 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…5862backed Over75c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.078955.1%49 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3a2…b515backed Under52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e4a…4efebacked Under56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.087546.7%35 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.