MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f399bd620764831b93d478d27b8e8b0fef3b68f4d316a0b32b396e6c33f2d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 69c | 7,952$5,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 6,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 2,041$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 72c | 1,882$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 1,024$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 796$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 601.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 519.55$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 15c | 516.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 13c | 396.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 278.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked New York Mets | 68c | 261.22$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed New York Mets | 70c | 261$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 53c | 222$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 73c | 182.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 171.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 162.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed New York Mets | 54c | 87.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 28c | 48.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked New York Mets | 69c | 45.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Mets | 53c | 36.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Mets | 69c | 23.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Mets | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.