Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b26be82070d5da9aa72e76c6c7b7a0019b953a957c713a213cd161451015cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 284.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 243.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 242.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 159.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 148.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 36c | 146.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 125.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 122.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 122.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 99.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 98.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 36c | 96.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 90.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 83.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 77.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 75.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 14c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 70.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 36c | 64.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 24c | 63.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 62.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 20c | 57.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 23c | 56.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 56.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 50.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 34c | 48.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 33c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 28c | 39.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 36c | 39.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 34c | 32.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 32.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 65c | 24.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 77c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 64c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 64c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 64c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 80c | 14.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked No | 79c | 13.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.