Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ffed2138b2d026678c47b1dc8cca876c9a9e56928ae0152402a78606f05e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 25c | 700.91$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.33 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 672.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 461.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 72c | 297.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 223.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 188$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 72c | 175.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 6c | 160.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…104cbacked Yes | 32c | 156.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 14c | 146.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…7672backed Yes | 36c | 138.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 133.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 132.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 108.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 73c | 107.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 105.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 90.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 88.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 84.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 81.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 72c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 20c | 77.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 76.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 71.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 16c | 71.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 51c | 69.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 35c | 69.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 71c | 68.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…52eabacked No | 77c | 64.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 79c | 64.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 46.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 24c | 43.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 46c | 39.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 28c | 38.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 37.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 47c | 34.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 67c | 26.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…368fbacked No | 80c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 74c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.