TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,120

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,934 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes65c1,046$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.456048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d55…6090backed No2c752.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.05277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No38c646.86$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c599.99$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No67c443.98$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.538239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No46c424.84$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1653925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No6c376.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.323,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked No55c230.2$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.13742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c199.38$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No42c197.46$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No31c166.83$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.244,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5a…bc49backed No63c156.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.615549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No34c130.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.531,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No36c120.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c120$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes32c118$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.661,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd3…104cbacked No57c116.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.751136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+101.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb719…c1e1backed No50c114$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No61c112.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3616046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c107.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.365,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c107.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.219,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.55158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes53c97.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.473638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes47c95.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7170133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes33c89.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1725935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No55c86.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes59c84.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8422171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes44c80.92$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3224466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes51c79.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9940132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No54c73.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c71.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c64.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.479,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes76c63.68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.587061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c61.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.285,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…07acbacked No64c60.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked No31c59.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.316354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c56.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No25c56.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.954,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes31c55.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.432,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e4…3afebacked Yes37c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No42c51.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.682,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes59c50.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.824066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes33c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1580735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes44c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2517744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes24c43.48$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.262,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes41c41.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4619632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No46c40.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.449017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f57…50c1backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1428946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9881…14ebbacked Yes41c38.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes33c38.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…3257backed Yes66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.882540%10 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No63c37.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8157264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes33c36.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No47c36.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9843859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7111342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Yes36c33.84$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.662646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes45c33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes38c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9643430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No38c30.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe168…f375backed Yes42c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.514731.9%15 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7542544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae6e…b4bebacked No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes34c29.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8252533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes42c28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2420230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No57c27.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.611,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…ae9bbacked No66c26.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.446660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes39c25.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5519848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1048…e362backed No53c24.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87153.5%38 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+62%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7229…ff73backed No53c23.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11a9…4182backed No64c23.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.169260.9%56 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No68c22.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x139e…a5debacked No68c22.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9924951.4%128 W · 121 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…76cfbacked No56c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c20.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.584,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8752…31b6backed Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.47440.5%30 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb26…2603backed Yes62c19.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes75c16.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.322965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes71c16.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6923463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.439968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No66c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8524542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.