MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314aa7cccea8390c4d18df37cc24fa98d30583361a5c0f2007d21eb7cb38b1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 48c | 392.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 51c | 158.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 52c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 52c | 50.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…1b25backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Yes | 53c | 38.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 32.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 56c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.