MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972332a84f8435a611671c682dafc315655479aa1204f1d5ad4e5dcad3b83ecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 4,280$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 4,226$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.48 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 3,659$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 2,179$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 2,126$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 998.65$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 806.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.18 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 642$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 638$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 336.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 333.13$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.59 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 315.79$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 305.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 201.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 196.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 191.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 172$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 122.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 100.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 75.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 63.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 62.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 60.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 54.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 53.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 53.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 41.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 41.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 35.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 34.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 33.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Chicago White Sox | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 28.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.