MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24879c0c985237e298b8787c17e275c3217c98b41080a709bc75ec546bd1bb96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 8,106$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,029.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 6,918$3,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.2 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 5,676$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.9 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 48c | 4,102$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.84 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 56c | 3,761$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.32 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,438$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.92 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 54c | 3,213$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.85 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 2,341$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.32 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,730$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 1,205$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 942.62$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.31 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 781.45$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 73c | 683.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 648.16$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 47c | 589.38$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.51 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 47c | 555$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.15 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 54c | 449.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 46c | 331.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 300.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 54c | 260.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.87 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 63c | 238.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 232.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 182.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 172$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 8c | 142.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 138.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 133.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 131.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 127.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 121$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 119.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 53c | 112.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…5648backed Over | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 43c | 103.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 34c | 97.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 91.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 89.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 52c | 76.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 56c | 71.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 48.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 41.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 38.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 49c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 31.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…dbb6backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 53c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Under | 52c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.