MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x795ee26f03aabc3c67f5de324ff89b63b99a5f78c9ddc9d8a531d3b345eed7b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 10,232$3,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,513.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 7,996$4,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,954.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 7,256$3,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 6,492$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,685.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 2,347$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.48 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 1,983$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.42 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 1,731$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 1,715$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.57 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 1,443$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 778$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 31c | 470.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 437.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 140.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 134.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 130.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 128.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 112.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 111.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 108.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 107$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 62.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 60.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 59.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Chicago White Sox | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 49.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 41.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 39.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 25.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…f799backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 18.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.