MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31598158f1bc15af312c7b43318a341c59be14a3e954ff41a75bbdba02be656e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,025$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.04 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 831.46$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 715$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.81 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 676.17$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 602.58$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 594.54$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 486.14$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 473.27$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 360$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 266.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.37 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 194$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 133.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 131$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 118.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 109.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 95.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 75.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 58.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 48.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 46.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 39.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 33.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 32.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 32.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 31.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 28.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 25.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.