MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d638f85fada0bb0c893c9fde2fb714939f71f4a1419068e39d2b7ef2c4ad70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 51c | 3,778$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.24 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…00e7backed Under | 53c | 2,590$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 2,276$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.71 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 70c | 2,150$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.91 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 1,217$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,200$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 48c | 1,157$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.69 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 49c | 1,005$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.45 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 948$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.04 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 713.3$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 686.38$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.57 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 52c | 674$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.52 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 649$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.03 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 54c | 524.76$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.37 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 49c | 435.92$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 426.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 406$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 51c | 341.29$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.23 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 51c | 230$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 224.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 49c | 217.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 46c | 199.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 52c | 169.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 52c | 164.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 130.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 123.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 52c | 95.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 60c | 94.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 89.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 40c | 83.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 49c | 75.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 52c | 74.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 36c | 67.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 60.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 59.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 49c | 48.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 46.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 43.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 52c | 40.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e5…0cadbacked Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under | 52c | 37.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 37.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 52c | 34.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 34.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 52c | 34.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 71c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 52c | 27.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Under | 66c | 22.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 48c | 22.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 77c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.