Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Alexander Bublik vs Yibing Wu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316bf022285474233e23bf3ec70c90f538a025d88fdfd2a0b93f29913f8ee536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Wu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Bublik | 72c | 5,821$4,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.73 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Wu | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Bublik | 74c | 4,052$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.42 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wu | 26c | 3,332$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.1 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wu | 28c | 2,279$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.4 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wu | 28c | 2,244$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.68 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Bublik | 73c | 1,500$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Bublik | 71c | 1,399$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.24 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wu | 28c | 1,039$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bublik | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Wu | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Bublik | 70c | 789$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.7 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Bublik | 71c | 606.72$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Wu | 35c | 605.43$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Wu | 30c | 566.21$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…0b43backed Wu | 12c | 385$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Wu | 26c | 364.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Bublik | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 74c | 274.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Wu | 25c | 234.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Bublik | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 77c | 195.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Bublik | 71c | 184.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Wu | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bublik | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bublik | 73c | 136.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Wu | 28c | 128.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Wu | 27c | 128.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Bublik | 71c | 124.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bublik | 65c | 118.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Bublik | 73c | 114.38$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wu | 29c | 108.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Wu | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Wu | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Wu | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wu | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wu | 25c | 53.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Wu | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Bublik | 74c | 47.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Bublik | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Wu | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Bublik | 71c | 33.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Bublik | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bublik | 68c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.