Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316efe1c22214deb2f39a541ccf3f539c2a1908ec6a693ab5a7a62a299701e2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Aurora, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,035 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1776…e557backed Aurora | 53c | 35,811$18,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,979.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit | 47c | 9,283$4,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,919.97 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Spirit | 28c | 8,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,759.99 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 50c | 7,960$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Team Spirit | 47c | 7,580$3,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,017.33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Aurora | 51c | 6,534$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.35 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 48c | 6,301$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,263.9 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Aurora | 53c | 5,760$3,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Spirit | 63c | 4,991$3,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.91 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit | 54c | 3,960$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.81 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit | 51c | 3,125$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.64 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Spirit | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 2,872$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.16 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora | 29c | 2,536$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.52 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 63c | 2,438$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.6 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 51c | 2,209$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.76 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8db6backed Team Spirit | 46c | 2,139$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.98 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit | 48c | 1,777$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.81 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 63c | 1,492$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.4 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora | 34c | 1,481$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.61 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Spirit | 58c | 1,451$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.43 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 63c | 1,087$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.23 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…b857backed Aurora | 53c | 1,064$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 44c | 1,034$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.9 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Team Spirit | 47c | 945$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.85 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Aurora | 49c | 905$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.3 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit | 43c | 895$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.34 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 44c | 894$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Aurora | 34c | 865.83$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Spirit | 47c | 864.48$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.86 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Spirit | 45c | 809.58$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.27 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 63c | 804.33$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…0c26backed Aurora | 5c | 790.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked Aurora | 55c | 757.2$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.5 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Spirit | 68c | 753.54$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.31 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit | 46c | 737.04$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.04 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Spirit | 42c | 700$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Aurora | 52c | 699.98$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.99 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit | 62c | 699.28$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.73 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Team Spirit | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Team Spirit | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Team Spirit | 34c | 589.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.76 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Team Spirit | 44c | 564.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.19 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 52c | 561.52$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.99 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Team Spirit | 48c | 504.92$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.92 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 500$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 48c | 474.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 457.6$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Aurora | 13c | 430$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Spirit | 34c | 419.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.79 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 53c | 400$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed Team Spirit | 68c | 394$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Team Spirit | 47c | 391.49$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 55c | 379.06$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora | 8c | 362.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed Aurora | 52c | 358.51$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Team Spirit | 47c | 357.45$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.45 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 342$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Spirit | 50c | 322.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Spirit | 46c | 286.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Aurora | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 39c | 271.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Team Spirit | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora | 5c | 260.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Spirit | 51c | 253.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Spirit | 48c | 252.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 53c | 250.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Aurora | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 50c | 244.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Team Spirit | 40c | 241.6$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Team Spirit | 43c | 235.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…a5fdbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 234.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 54c | 227.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Aurora | 29c | 216.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Team Spirit | 47c | 212.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Spirit | 67c | 209.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…b46abacked Team Spirit | 48c | 207.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Aurora | 63c | 206.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 61c | 203.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Aurora | 38c | 201.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Aurora | 50c | 200.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 55.6%69 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Spirit | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Team Spirit | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Spirit | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Spirit | 56c | 194.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 60c | 191.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora | 60c | 187.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…d51cbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 184.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.91 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf185…2ab4backed Aurora | 12c | 184.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…2811backed Team Spirit | 49c | 184.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Aurora | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit | 40c | 162.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.