Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x639d2574508365827423a5e7532989e672e6c09310ff0b84b0f22f907a16871d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 49c | 29,969$14,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,369.42 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1776…e557backed Aurora | 51c | 19,829$10,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,775.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 49c | 17,201$8,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,420.35 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Spirit | 49c | 15,912$7,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,839.39 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Aurora | 46c | 6,476$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,496.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Spirit | 49c | 6,329$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.89 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Team Spirit | 50c | 6,284$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 50c | 5,994$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.59 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Spirit | 54c | 5,962$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.29 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Aurora | 48c | 5,215$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.95 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Spirit | 19c | 4,920$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.34 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 45c | 3,840$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.94 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 51c | 3,148$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.25 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Aurora | 52c | 3,085$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 49c | 3,006$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.91 | 2,834 | 43.6%1,236 W · 1,598 L | -39.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 2,100$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Aurora | 49c | 2,054$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.09 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit | 55c | 2,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Spirit | 42c | 1,942$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.36 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Spirit | 41c | 1,458$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.59 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Spirit | 51c | 1,319$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.47 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 1,250$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.5 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit | 46c | 1,206$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.68 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Aurora | 46c | 1,105$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Spirit | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…022fbacked Team Spirit | 3c | 1,067$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 805 | 43.9%353 W · 452 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Team Spirit | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…e141backed Team Spirit | 52c | 968.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Team Spirit | 47c | 950$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 48c | 930$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.9 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Spirit | 18c | 768.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Aurora | 67c | 746.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.39 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Team Spirit | 50c | 743$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.03 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Team Spirit | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Team Spirit | 47c | 658$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.16 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.84 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…b3b6backed Team Spirit | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Aurora | 52c | 575.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 461 | 49.7%229 W · 232 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora | 51c | 538.47$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.06 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Team Spirit | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Team Spirit | 57c | 483$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.14 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Aurora | 78c | 446.02$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Aurora | 54c | 442.46$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.38 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…b857backed Team Spirit | 54c | 400.58$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.31 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 399$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…3ff4backed Team Spirit | 52c | 384.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Spirit | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed Team Spirit | 55c | 370.47$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Spirit | 36c | 369.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora | 44c | 358.16$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit | 51c | 340.04$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 336.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 52c | 326.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Aurora | 50c | 318.31$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Team Spirit | 45c | 317.74$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Team Spirit | 45c | 294$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Team Spirit | 54c | 263$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Spirit | 7c | 256.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit | 53c | 255$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 697 | 44.6%311 W · 386 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…bbd7backed Aurora | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 48c | 249.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit | 58c | 243.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aurora | 58c | 221.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed Team Spirit | 48c | 208.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Spirit | 52c | 205.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Team Spirit | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Team Spirit | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 54c | 199.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 72c | 194.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Spirit | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Team Spirit | 54c | 185.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Aurora | 44c | 181.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Team Spirit | 54c | 180$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit | 46c | 170.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Aurora | 50c | 165.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit | 47c | 162.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Spirit | 39c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 63c | 158.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Team Spirit | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Team Spirit | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Aurora | 45c | 141.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 44c | 141.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 809 | 42.6%345 W · 464 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Team Spirit | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…24fabacked Team Spirit | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…b46abacked Team Spirit | 60c | 132$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aurora | 43c | 125.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Team Spirit | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Spirit | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Aurora | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Aurora | 47c | 113.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed Team Spirit | 48c | 112.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Team Spirit | 17c | 108.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.