Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. California Golden Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3187f4804e6093fd628ab96583be8aa540f7d3538a5e83289f2ce41012ce0082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof North Carolina Tar Heels, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed California Golden Bears | 57c | 3,354$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.35 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California Golden Bears | 70c | 2,758$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.32 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 2,511$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.93 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked California Golden Bears | 31c | 2,315$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.41 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 15c | 2,053$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.64 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 42c | 1,855$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 69c | 1,268$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 70c | 1,229$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.62 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed California Golden Bears | 28c | 1,086$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.92 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 72c | 1,077$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.44 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California Golden Bears | 55c | 555.73$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.4 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 512$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.11 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 33c | 337.81$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 306.59$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.22 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed California Golden Bears | 77c | 254.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked California Golden Bears | 32c | 207.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked California Golden Bears | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 71c | 180.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…c64abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 57c | 166.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked California Golden Bears | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 44c | 146.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked California Golden Bears | 30c | 121$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked California Golden Bears | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 58c | 119.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…f17dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 63c | 93.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked California Golden Bears | 29c | 90.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…af5dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 30c | 83.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 28c | 79.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed California Golden Bears | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 66c | 59.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed California Golden Bears | 32c | 58.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…cf8bbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 58.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0260…0261backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 32c | 56.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed California Golden Bears | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked California Golden Bears | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked California Golden Bears | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 68c | 38.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked California Golden Bears | 67c | 29.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 55c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. California Golden Bearsthis page
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5)California Golden Bears won
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-6.5)California Golden Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.