Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x051d5f8fbb53981d88ca76e463c06edf58db3b2388d8233113bed059e00a4547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof North Carolina Tar Heels, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $561,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 52c | 510,460$264,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264,535.81 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 400,000$192,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,400 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 35,000$16,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,050 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 10,030$4,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,165.52 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 9,497$4,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.04 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 4,611$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.15 | 199 | 50.3%100 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 4,549$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.02 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked California Golden Bears | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 2,920$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.74 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked California Golden Bears | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 49c | 1,116$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.13 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 686.18$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.18 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 653.97$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.11 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 381$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 367.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 356$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 321.4$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 280.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.32 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 194.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…5146backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 133.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked California Golden Bears | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 97.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 85.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…22fabacked California Golden Bears | 65c | 76.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…6f40backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 46c | 65.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…9975backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked California Golden Bears | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed California Golden Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed California Golden Bears | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 48.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…b6bebacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 46.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…a6afbacked California Golden Bears | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05a…bf53backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked California Golden Bears | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…399ebacked California Golden Bears | 52c | 33.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…066ebacked California Golden Bears | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…51a8backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 30.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dec…61b7backed California Golden Bears | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 23.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…d571backed California Golden Bears | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-6.5)this page
- North Carolina Tar Heels vs. California Golden BearsCalifornia Golden Bears won
- Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5)California Golden Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.