Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318e6ed049c03e93a428aa1853b1dec91bf277e413917b4386ecb61d37577033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 833.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 55c | 570.57$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 15c | 556.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 25c | 479.61$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 41c | 462.01$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 435.93$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.31 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 426.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 73c | 322.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 34c | 301.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.69 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 289.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 33c | 274.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.49 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 36c | 258.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 250.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 5c | 200.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 51c | 195.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 164.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 153.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 152.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 146.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 64c | 129.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 126.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 124.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 54c | 120.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 56c | 119.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 45c | 104.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 100.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 97.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 63c | 97.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 46c | 93.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 93.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 64c | 93.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 92.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 31c | 89.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 47c | 87.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 31c | 87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e57…1d7bbacked No | 57c | 84.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked Yes | 74c | 81.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 17c | 79.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 52c | 78.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 75.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 64c | 75.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 74.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 35c | 74.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 75c | 73.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 73.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 27c | 69.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 68.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 52c | 67.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 51c | 66.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 65.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 45c | 62.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 61.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 22c | 59.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 55c | 58.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 36c | 57.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 40c | 57.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 31c | 55.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 70c | 55.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 53c | 53.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 28c | 52.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 51.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 37c | 51.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 51.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 67c | 50.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 71c | 49.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ab…86b5backed Yes | 37c | 48.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…8d09backed Yes | 35c | 46.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 46.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 48c | 41.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 69c | 41.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Yes | 48c | 39.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 64c | 39.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 35c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…358abacked Yes | 51c | 38.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 36c | 37.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 37c | 37.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 43c | 36.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 35.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.