Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dfe55bf7648f08c8a61ae93d2c948e8e20a4cf77ff324006794dd4e16c88343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb785…b54abacked Yes | 0c | 56,605$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…0a14backed Yes | 0c | 22,503$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 840.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 734.28$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 359.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…7318backed Yes | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 340.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked Yes | 31c | 333.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 28c | 331.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 322.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 310.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 298.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 77c | 294.34$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 247.94$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 28c | 242.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 12c | 236.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 214.59$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 71c | 204.55$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 200.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 31c | 196$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 195.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…08a9backed No | 72c | 194.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 42c | 185.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 175.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 14c | 169.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 24c | 165.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 22c | 165.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 26c | 163.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 156.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 149.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 140.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 28c | 139.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 41c | 138.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Yes | 20c | 136.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 133.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 22c | 131.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 128.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 125.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 28c | 99.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 25c | 98.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 92.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 89.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 28c | 87.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 12c | 86.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 21c | 86.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 80c | 79.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 79.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 75c | 79.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 24c | 77.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 77.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7a…5395backed Yes | 21c | 76.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 75.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 18c | 75.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 24c | 74.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 74.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 71.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 26c | 69.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 69.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 68.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 76c | 64.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 75c | 64.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 63.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 25c | 62.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 20c | 60.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 59.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 78c | 58.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 57.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 20c | 55.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265a…ca42backed Yes | 35c | 53.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 26c | 50.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…f11dbacked Yes | 25c | 50.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 25c | 50.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked No | 76c | 48.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 23c | 48.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 45.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 25c | 44.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 34c | 41.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 41.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…ae96backed No | 69c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…492bbacked No | 79c | 39.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 34.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 71c | 33.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 31.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 29.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 74c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.