Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71f33d51cd7056e81efe23ae73eabedf1ae1fe81a94bfe97c89a6e08034ace46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 32c | 5,541$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.58 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 48c | 1,678$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 738.11$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.69 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 585.75$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 57c | 365.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked Yes | 40c | 349.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 339.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 270.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 268.61$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 66c | 263.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 255.48$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 241.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 69c | 230.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 225.83$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 221.76$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 13c | 213.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 77c | 206.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 60c | 193.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 21c | 175.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 156.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 152.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 62c | 149.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 147.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 136.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 136.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 77c | 129.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…2ddfbacked No | 74c | 125.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 28c | 118.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 107.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 65c | 106.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed No | 66c | 105.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 61c | 105.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 105.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 101.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 23c | 101.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 72c | 101.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 97.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 97.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 68c | 94.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 92.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 90.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 21c | 87.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 15c | 86.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 56c | 85.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 83.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 64c | 83.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 82.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 79.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 39c | 75.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 80c | 74.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 73.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 40c | 70.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 70.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 24c | 69.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 34c | 69.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 72c | 57.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 56.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 26c | 54.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 72c | 54.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…f11dbacked Yes | 32c | 53.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 50.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…e79dbacked No | 73c | 49.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 49.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 49.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…8d09backed Yes | 45c | 48.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8f…637ebacked Yes | 34c | 46.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 43.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…07ffbacked Yes | 33c | 43.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 77c | 42.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 42.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 72c | 40.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…56a6backed No | 69c | 39.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 62c | 38.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 37.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 37.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c48…6af3backed Yes | 30c | 36.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked No | 54c | 35.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 73c | 35.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…5afebacked No | 55c | 32.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 73c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…83a8backed No | 60c | 30.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed No | 79c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 58c | 29.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.