La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31993c15eba375fcf9c6be9a6c75d5f0ca1722784b8544e7b1f87195f3572bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 48c | 9,687$4,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046.79 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 11c | 9,572$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.52 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Yes | 76c | 3,353$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 51c | 2,496$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.99 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 52c | 2,471$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.78 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 2,327$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.12 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 52c | 2,034$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.87 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed No | 13c | 1,943$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 1,015$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.59 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Yes | 48c | 904.46$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 11c | 869.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked No | 54c | 696.54$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 48c | 625.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.36 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 351 | 45.6%160 W · 191 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 48c | 558.92$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 46c | 512.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.92 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 53c | 400.25$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…22a2backed Yes | 47c | 388.38$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…1baebacked Yes | 48c | 383.48$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 52c | 337.25$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b0e8backed Yes | 47c | 309.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 280.59$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 268.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 52c | 260.49$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.43 | 754 | 51.2%386 W · 368 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 244.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 240$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 239.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 53c | 232.06$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 46c | 209.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +13.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 53c | 181.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 52c | 175.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 52c | 174.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 226 | 58.4%132 W · 94 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 46c | 126.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 50c | 126.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 268 | 53%142 W · 126 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked Yes | 47c | 102.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1579backed Yes | 48c | 101.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 227 | 40.1%91 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 50c | 89.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 48c | 81.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 413 | 48.7%201 W · 212 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb4…db25backed Yes | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 68c | 80.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…698cbacked Yes | 46c | 79.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 77c | 77.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Yes | 46c | 73.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 43c | 73.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 635 | 53.1%337 W · 298 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 53c | 72.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 48c | 70.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed No | 54c | 67.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +86%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Yes | 45c | 65.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -14.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Yes | 47c | 59.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…2489backed No | 55c | 56.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 54c | 53.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078f…aa10backed Yes | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…065abacked Yes | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…188fbacked Yes | 50c | 45.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 47c | 41.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 270 | 55.2%149 W · 121 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…25b0backed Yes | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 40c | 36.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 54c | 35.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 168 | 60.1%101 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed No | 51c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 53c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…9303backed Yes | 48c | 30.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 36c | 30.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…a825backed Yes | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…74f7backed Yes | 48c | 27.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 40c | 26.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Yes | 49c | 25.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 45c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Yes | 49c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 47c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 61c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 75c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-04-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.