Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c7a01337d2147cb3be51dde0e412e81fa56381bbd2f872d7db166021fea9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 423.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 192.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 152.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 42c | 137.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 10c | 114.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 111.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 104.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 104.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 98.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 91.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 77.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 77.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 76.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 70.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 59.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 73c | 59.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 55.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 54.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 54.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 43.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 41c | 41.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 40.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 40c | 39.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313e…8498backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 66c | 33.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…3359backed Yes | 44c | 32.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 45c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…5269backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 18.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 76c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.