La Liga · resolved market

Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31da6a890b69075b00f84190dff45144a4b2c0573ed4ecd0fe9c166d5b562034

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: FC Barcelonaof FC Barcelona, Villarreal CF
Resolved: Feb 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,353 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in La Liga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1c02…7fdcbacked Villarreal CF	69c	5,356$3,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,679.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Barcelona	35c	4,913$1,697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,216.31	3,449	43%1,484 W · 1,965 L	+32.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Villarreal CF	69c	4,511$3,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,109.31	4,740	47%2,230 W · 2,510 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed FC Barcelona	26c	2,001$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,482.24	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Villarreal CF	65c	1,633$1,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.66	219	57.5%126 W · 93 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7434…2ff4backed FC Barcelona	31c	1,604$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,104.24	122	36.1%44 W · 78 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked FC Barcelona	29c	1,133$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$802.99	501	49.5%248 W · 253 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Villarreal CF	65c	800$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	225	52.4%118 W · 107 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Villarreal CF	65c	499.97$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.98	218	49.1%107 W · 111 L	-7.8wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed FC Barcelona	35c	440.46$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.3	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed FC Barcelona	54c	369.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.99	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Villarreal CF	67c	331.97$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Villarreal CF	65c	300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	197	50.3%99 W · 98 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Villarreal CF	65c	300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	290	53.4%155 W · 135 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Villarreal CF	65c	300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	317	51.1%162 W · 155 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Barcelona	34c	300$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198	317	45.7%145 W · 172 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Villarreal CF	68c	272.38$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.22	280	55%154 W · 126 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Villarreal CF	67c	230.47$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	140	28.6%40 W · 100 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed FC Barcelona	31c	180$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.2	342	52%178 W · 164 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed FC Barcelona	31c	168.63$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.12	1,508	38.7%583 W · 925 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked FC Barcelona	30c	166.66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.66	321	45.8%147 W · 174 L	-9.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Villarreal CF	70c	163.33$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.33	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-8.1wins	-0.16per pick	68cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed FC Barcelona	34c	161.55$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.41	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+4.9wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	193	52.3%101 W · 92 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	210	51.9%109 W · 101 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	206	52.9%109 W · 97 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	188	53.2%100 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	202	50.5%102 W · 100 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	196	52%102 W · 94 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	290	53.4%155 W · 135 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	209	49.8%104 W · 105 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	190	53.7%102 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Villarreal CF	65c	120$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	157	47.1%74 W · 83 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Villarreal CF	65c	119.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed FC Barcelona	33c	112.42$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.42	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FC Barcelona	27c	104$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.94	192	47.4%91 W · 101 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked FC Barcelona	44c	101$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.99	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked FC Barcelona	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Villarreal CF	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	191	53.4%102 W · 89 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked FC Barcelona	45c	98$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.38	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked Villarreal CF	65c	97.45$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.34	195	53.3%104 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a21…423dbacked FC Barcelona	32c	84.75$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Barcelona	30c	78$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.74	1,566	51.6%808 W · 758 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a0…da0dbacked FC Barcelona	33c	60.61$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.61	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Villarreal CF	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	141	57.4%81 W · 60 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Villarreal CF	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	191	52.4%100 W · 91 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Villarreal CF	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	211	51.7%109 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked FC Barcelona	42c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.61	132	49.2%65 W · 67 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Villarreal CF	65c	60$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	185	51.9%96 W · 89 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed FC Barcelona	31c	53$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.35	152	46.1%70 W · 82 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed FC Barcelona	53c	52$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Villarreal CF	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	200	54.5%109 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Villarreal CF	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	197	51.8%102 W · 95 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed FC Barcelona	33c	43.8$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	129	25.6%33 W · 96 L	-9.7wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5358…44e8backed FC Barcelona	35c	42.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.86	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed FC Barcelona	34c	40.09$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.46	143	42%60 W · 83 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Villarreal CF	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	191	55%105 W · 86 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Villarreal CF	65c	40$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	188	52.7%99 W · 89 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Barcelona	28c	35.72$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.72	413	23.2%96 W · 317 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Villarreal CF	66c	33.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Villarreal CF	65c	27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Villarreal CF	70c	23.8$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Villarreal CF	66c	21.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.03	119	62.2%74 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed21…aa05backed Villarreal CF	68c	19.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…45e9backed Villarreal CF	70c	18.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)this page
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
FC Barcelona vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)FC Barcelona won
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)FC Barcelona won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event