Lol · resolved market
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e87a193b3096b3f8fd4c4ca3212cb4713d6909d19386cb674f8c2b2716a157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corp Blueof Karmine Corp Blue, Los Heretics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Los Heretics | 29c | 4,282$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.62 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Los Heretics | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…3fa6backed Los Heretics | 15c | 2,744$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Karmine Corp Blue | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Karmine Corp Blue | 55c | 1,381$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +58%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Los Heretics | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Karmine Corp Blue | 79c | 1,250$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.8 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…1391backed Los Heretics | 35c | 1,121$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.39 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…a465backed Karmine Corp Blue | 75c | 801.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Los Heretics | 25c | 782.23$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Los Heretics | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Karmine Corp Blue | 4c | 500$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Karmine Corp Blue | 79c | 340.01$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 254 | 66.5%169 W · 85 L | +22.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…610ebacked Los Heretics | 14c | 297.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Karmine Corp Blue | 21c | 264.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Los Heretics | 57c | 204.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a76dbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 47c | 201.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Los Heretics | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…ce67backed Los Heretics | 77c | 191.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…907cbacked Los Heretics | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 986 | 63.6%627 W · 359 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Los Heretics | 45c | 139.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 967 | 49.8%482 W · 485 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…8689backed Los Heretics | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…b0bcbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 76c | 99.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfb…6acabacked Los Heretics | 18c | 89.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…ba26backed Los Heretics | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…3321backed Los Heretics | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Los Heretics | 34c | 60.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 151 | 35.1%53 W · 98 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…f585backed Los Heretics | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…de7fbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 75c | 46.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea9…7f33backed Karmine Corp Blue | 75c | 29.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…d3dabacked Karmine Corp Blue | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8805…039fbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 78c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5)Karmine Corp Blue won
- LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 2 WinnerKarmine Corp Blue won
- LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 3 WinnerKarmine Corp Blue won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.