TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,461 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Under37c802.94$298 inLost-$297.7398945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f6…73fabacked Over66c305.27$200 inWon+$105.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a1…cd9ebacked Over60c200$120 inWon+$80250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Over74c160$119 inWon+$41.153568.6%24 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Over55c150$83 inWon+$67.54242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under28c140.05$39 inLost-$39.0371443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over60c100$60 inWon+$403327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under26c93.74$24 inLost-$23.999340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over74c85.06$63 inWon+$22.1236247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under13c82.53$11 inLost-$11.1180249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under21c55.31$12 inLost-$11.621,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2476…7eeebacked Over77c51.67$40 inWon+$11.672065%13 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79d…0289backed Over78c51.31$40 inWon+$11.312360.9%14 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under23c50.65$12 inLost-$11.653,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under43c43.83$19 inLost-$18.81,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over79c37.97$30 inWon+$7.972568%17 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Over77c36.69$28 inWon+$8.3544447.3%210 W · 234 L-1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over80c30$24 inWon+$636646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over79c27$21 inWon+$5.7635247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over53c23.83$13 inWon+$11.214549.7%72 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace3…f9b0backed Over78c20$16 inWon+$4.4887.5%7 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick79cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba3…97cebacked Over79c17.05$13 inWon+$3.583946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa625…fac6backed Over79c17.05$13 inWon+$3.584045%18 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5437…6e45backed Over77c15$12 inWon+$3.451687.5%14 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.