Mls · resolved market
Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c20da4bfe2ceecfe0417be01b6ac31b110a7ffc27abc2fb993cbb8b9cfc455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 2,759$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.17 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over | 31c | 2,520$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 2,154$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.25 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 1,985$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.6 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 1,302$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.88 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,289$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.87 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Over | 55c | 653.92$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 505.92$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 78c | 450.34$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 8c | 378.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 44c | 352.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 44c | 344.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 78c | 338.35$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 72c | 327.06$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Under | 51c | 315.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 287$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 55c | 283.85$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 32c | 253.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 235.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Under | 44c | 232.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 53c | 196.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…f166backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 169$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 139.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 138.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 134.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 53c | 114.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 109.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…a04dbacked Over | 18c | 103.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 56c | 76.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 44c | 74.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.6wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 55c | 65.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 65c | 64.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 74c | 35.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Under | 45c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Under | 46c | 23.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 61c | 22.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked Over | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed Over | 56c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Houston Dynamo vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Houston Dynamo won
- Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5)D.C. United SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.