Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321ac67e5f7f0cc07f4a1f3fe6958217692f1677970cbf3ecea75e042d37474c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 635.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 221.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 204$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 8c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 21c | 163$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 152.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 130.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 120.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 115.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 74c | 112.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 36c | 112$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 22c | 100.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 61c | 98.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 82.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 43c | 80.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 52c | 76.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 75.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 68.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 71c | 67.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 63.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 62.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 21c | 55.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 53.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 52.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 54c | 52.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 21c | 52.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…48fdbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 27c | 46.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 40.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 33.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 31.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 31.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 25.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 53c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 46c | 23.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 52c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.