Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d39515096ce08c02b157ee0334122f2d6224447a2def87de79b25356b8c5c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 896.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 46c | 400.69$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 308.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 173$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 40c | 152.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 122.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 112.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 49c | 109.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 103.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 25c | 97.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 22c | 96.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 49c | 95.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 68c | 83.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 80.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 66.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 55c | 60.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 59.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 32c | 57.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 56.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 47c | 56.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 51.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 47c | 49.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 76c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 46.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 43.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 43.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 71c | 41.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 42c | 41.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 40.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 40.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 47c | 39.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 54c | 37.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 34.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 51c | 31.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 49c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…65d0backed No | 49c | 28.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 39c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 47c | 26.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 38c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 53c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 22.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 65c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 55c | 20.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 69c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.