Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529244617714805281df1f12419bb53219632bc35da49630c83c439a133900fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 0c | 16,667$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 353.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 74c | 334.57$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 302.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 233.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.82 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 28c | 209.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 38c | 206.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 198.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed No | 8c | 197.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 210 | 24.3%51 W · 159 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 185.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 6c | 181.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 161.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 139.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 129.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 123.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853d…90febacked Yes | 33c | 119.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +129%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 35c | 112.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 112.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 106$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 79c | 69.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 68.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 676 | 25.7%174 W · 502 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 18c | 55.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 233 | 59.7%139 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 48c | 52.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 24c | 50.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 218 | 60.1%131 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 41c | 48.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 37c | 46.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 46.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 53c | 39.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 72c | 38.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed Yes | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 24.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 44c | 23.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…d998backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.