Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x323915e352b8ffd8c75ef83f836258552aaaca49bd9b85e5c18cd6f105baefb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,987$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,127$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 12c | 1,049$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 974.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 587.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…45b2backed Yes | 5c | 569.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 491.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x887b…f432backed Yes | 7c | 460.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aea…5f54backed Yes | 12c | 405.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked Yes | 9c | 346.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Yes | 6c | 342.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…c40bbacked Yes | 6c | 336.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…b8debacked Yes | 6c | 322.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 12.4%11 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…6a1dbacked Yes | 5c | 296.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 335 | 10.1%34 W · 301 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 8c | 264.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…f40cbacked Yes | 12c | 247.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…1b15backed Yes | 9c | 222.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…1e03backed Yes | 7c | 216.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…25c9backed Yes | 6c | 206.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 332 | 21.7%72 W · 260 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 205.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…8d02backed Yes | 8c | 188.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 7c | 177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf168…43fabacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…f51fbacked Yes | 9c | 109.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…dc6fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?this page
- Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.