Fifa International · resolved market
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3842487dfff78ec9965f6e9cd20721b41701a084b08d24d6e57530ae377c437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 20c | 1,453$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,430$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,152$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,013$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…4b29backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 14c | 792.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 12c | 746.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1b…ad63backed Yes | 13c | 736.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 19c | 706.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 17c | 579.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked Yes | 13c | 449$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 10c | 426.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 407.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 80c | 364.47$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa536…69b7backed Yes | 18c | 339.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 11c | 317.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 8c | 288.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 11c | 249.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 204.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 80c | 195$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0402…e230backed Yes | 12c | 171.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 11c | 167.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c95…7ca6backed Yes | 30c | 167.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…1b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 70c | 159$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf168…43fabacked Yes | 15c | 156.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…6f0fbacked Yes | 9c | 149.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 177 | 36.7%65 W · 112 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…f51fbacked Yes | 12c | 122.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…b09ebacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…ad12backed Yes | 16c | 92.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 80.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…fcfebacked Yes | 14c | 76.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 96 | 7.3%7 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will Portugal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Portugal win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.