Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324f3853279faf03cfdb63e3d2506ef04853276a2e462c99df4d5b8c7d127a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41cd…b1f1backed Yes | 1c | 5,919$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,164$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 28c | 821.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.14 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 566$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 557.98$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 397.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 24c | 389.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 15c | 383.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 17c | 379.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 366.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 294.28$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 287.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 276.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 27c | 238.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 238.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 235.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 181$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 23c | 178.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…31efbacked Yes | 27c | 166.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08a…ea24backed Yes | 28c | 159.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 158$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 34c | 147.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 142$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 21c | 141.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 12c | 134.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 128.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 121.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 115.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 111.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 105.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 104.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 103.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 103.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 102.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 94.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 26c | 90.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 31c | 85.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 60c | 76.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 41c | 73.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 68.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 33c | 67.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 62.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…dd4fbacked Yes | 21c | 58.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 52.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 70c | 43.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Yes | 37c | 34.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 77c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 77c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 31.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 31.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 70c | 29.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 27.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 38c | 26.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…847fbacked No | 77c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 71c | 21.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 72c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.