Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcd4580a94d30995c987aa49db473cdf413f08d397042e4d0f5fc5267f20ee1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 3,087$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 70c | 1,702$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 30c | 1,036$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.99 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 900.85$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 10c | 511.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 72c | 498.65$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 16c | 492.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 77c | 462.58$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 432.38$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 388.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 382.82$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 370.14$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 310.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 18c | 297.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 28c | 258.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 21c | 249.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 244.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 243.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 215.67$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 212$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 24c | 209.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 26c | 198$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 8c | 174.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 150.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 148.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 136.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 11c | 134.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 133.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Yes | 18c | 110.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 24c | 106.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 106.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 103.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 11c | 88.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 77c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 81.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 74.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 68.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 68.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 25c | 64.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 67c | 62.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 18c | 60.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 59.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 56.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749c…6301backed Yes | 24c | 56.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 20c | 55.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b9…9772backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 46.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 45.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 70c | 41.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d2…5964backed Yes | 27c | 41.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 36.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 33.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 77c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 79c | 32.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…7dafbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 77c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 80c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 78c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.