Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca84aad1b294eccd6f101d1be57bbdc1d3a963deabb850d2500408a5bfdba57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 52c | 1,242$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.31 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 38c | 959.8$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.6 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 875.74$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 746.08$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 616.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 589.24$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 500.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 411.76$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 30c | 390$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.05 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 13c | 382.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 356.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 341$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 337.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 302.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 61c | 299.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 44c | 291.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 284.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 20c | 277.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…28d4backed Yes | 73c | 274.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 35c | 260.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 50c | 233.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 48c | 229.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 55c | 213$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 211.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 36c | 206.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 205$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 198.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 14c | 196.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 186.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 167.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 162.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 80c | 137.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 136.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 135.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 121.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 121.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 30c | 115.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 39c | 113.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 21c | 111.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 103.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 40c | 99.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 75c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 50c | 96.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 33c | 92.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 43c | 92.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 92.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 33c | 90.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 79c | 88.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 75c | 69.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…3612backed No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 66.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 39c | 63.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…e4ecbacked Yes | 44c | 62.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 61.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 59.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 58.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 65c | 57.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 70c | 56.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked No | 70c | 55.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 19c | 55.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 54.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 72c | 53.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b430backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 71c | 49.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 58c | 45.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 45.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 44.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 41.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 70c | 41.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 34c | 39.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 32c | 36.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.