Fifa International · resolved market
Will United Arab Emirates vs. Armenia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32759ff9cf1a1b699e66d221a4405d5e2599068bd40d48da9cc7371616f2d4e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 23c | 4,985$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.04 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Yes | 78c | 2,084$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.43 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,065$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,696$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.56 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…3678backed No | 20c | 1,516$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 30c | 1,231$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.05 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 2c | 1,006$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 7c | 964.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 19c | 707.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.71 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 6c | 350.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 20c | 346.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 322.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 5c | 281.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 4c | 274.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 20c | 253.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Yes | 77c | 204.86$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 20c | 204.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 193.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 8c | 154.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 14c | 150.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 77c | 27.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United Arab Emirates vs. Armenia end in a draw?this page
- Will Armenia win on 2026-03-26?No won
- Will United Arab Emirates win on 2026-03-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.