Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32819fcb6f1affd2dba4f34e526d13b2434d8deb51921be337f673d0b55be450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Two Moveof Two Move, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Two Move | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Two Move | 60c | 1,061$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.39 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MODUS | 39c | 1,007$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.98 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Two Move | 68c | 903.41$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.7 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Two Move | 55c | 815.79$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.73 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed MODUS | 21c | 669.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MODUS | 18c | 630$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed MODUS | 38c | 579.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 38c | 514.89$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked MODUS | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Two Move | 42c | 424.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.25 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Two Move | 62c | 422.92$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.71 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked MODUS | 35c | 357.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MODUS | 44c | 338.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 50c | 323.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Two Move | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Two Move | 67c | 297.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked MODUS | 32c | 238.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed MODUS | 30c | 212.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed MODUS | 48c | 207.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Two Move | 53c | 198.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Two Move | 53c | 187.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.87 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed Two Move | 64c | 153.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Two Move | 68c | 151.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked MODUS | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked MODUS | 68c | 140.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked MODUS | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…b7cdbacked Two Move | 70c | 132.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed MODUS | 19c | 117.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Two Move | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Two Move | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 46c | 98.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Two Move | 61c | 89.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Two Move | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed MODUS | 19c | 82.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Two Move | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Two Move | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed MODUS | 76c | 71.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Two Move | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked MODUS | 40c | 62.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Two Move | 26c | 61.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Two Move | 59c | 58.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed MODUS | 46c | 55.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Two Move | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Two Move | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Two Move | 66c | 39.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Two Move | 60c | 38.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e2…5985backed Two Move | 57c | 30.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Two Move | 37c | 30.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed MODUS | 56c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Two Move | 77c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed MODUS | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…8553backed Two Move | 65c | 17.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed MODUS | 65c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTwo Move won
- Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerTwo Move won
- Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?Yes won
- Game Handicap: TM (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)Two Move won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.