NFL · resolved market
TEN vs. SF: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32860d38508529855a282602e4511b3288188f43a93ac1428af55f795a1d7fef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 295$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 43c | 271$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 143$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 129.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 55c | 101.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 86.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 62.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Over | 43c | 59.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.6wins | -0.39per pick | 50cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-4.5)Titans won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-6.5)SF won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 37.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 39.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 40.5Under won
- Titans vs. 49ersTitans won
- Titans vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineTitans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.