NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259ff5d9085140974aa6a661defe560842863ece07d264ad09d8fd29f313234c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TENof TEN, SF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed SF | 45c | 468$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed TEN | 69c | 291.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked TEN | 56c | 263$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33c…97b3backed SF | 38c | 241.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SF | 32c | 191.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked TEN | 62c | 125.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed TEN | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked SF | 31c | 91.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed TEN | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked TEN | 55c | 77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed TEN | 48c | 73.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed SF | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed TEN | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked TEN | 65c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-4.5)Titans won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-6.5)SF won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 37.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 38.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 39.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 40.5Under won
- Titans vs. 49ersTitans won
- Titans vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineTitans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.