NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0b1ef8300d0d6e455800057c47b012da2a55c5c47ae95bb78b562be817c6a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SFof TEN, SF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked SF | 52c | 83,325$43,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,701.14 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed TEN | 46c | 33,403$15,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,365.38 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed TEN | 47c | 28,494$13,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,392 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked TEN | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed TEN | 51c | 1,484$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.8 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed TEN | 17c | 993.69$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked SF | 53c | 980.76$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed TEN | 47c | 980.76$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked TEN | 48c | 873$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.56 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed SF | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked SF | 53c | 500$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked TEN | 49c | 184$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed SF | 50c | 178$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed SF | 58c | 149.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SF | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked SF | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed SF | 55c | 99.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed SF | 50c | 86.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked SF | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked TEN | 46c | 46.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…969abacked SF | 54c | 36.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed TEN | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…1159backed TEN | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed SF | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed TEN | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-4.5)Titans won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)TEN won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 37.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 38.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 39.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 40.5Under won
- Titans vs. 49ersTitans won
- Titans vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineTitans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.